Bitcoin appears to be recovering from the second-largest correction in this ongoing bull market. If this trend continues, it could lead to a cycle peak by fall 2025.
On-chain data reveals that long-term holders are resuming accumulation, with selling pressure from this group significantly decreasing after months of heavy distribution. Historically, major price surges have followed a slowdown in long-term holder distribution, marking the transition into the ‘price discovery’ phase of the bull market. If past cycles repeat, Bitcoin’s road to $100K may be closer than expected.
Recent weeks for Bitcoin and the entire market have not been successful, bringing massive liquidation of leverage and a decline in interest in speculation. If Wall Street rebounds, rising to new ATHs on a wave of easing concerns around trade policy, giving investors an injection of optimism, we may well see an increase above 100 000 $ in the spring. At these levels, the further fate of the largest cryptocurrency may be ‘played out’.
The dynamics of the BTC price in relation to the global M2 money supply also suggest potential for growth from current levels. The main threat to the market is currently higher inflation data from the US, investor risk aversion, which entails lower interest in ETF funds. Such a scenario could cause the market to speculate about the actual end of the BTC bull market. Lower flows of funds to stock exchanges and the lack of visible, new demand are also causing some concerns. However, we remain calm that this demand – also among individual investors – may appear if the conditions for a bull market are met. These are primarily lower inflation in the US, a decrease in recession fears, which currently supports the easing of the US trade policy. At least two Fed rate cuts this year could give the bulls more ‘fuel’ for growth.
Since Trump’s term began, the US SEC has closed a number of high-profile lawsuits targeting cryptocurrency companies, including Ripple. In addition to ongoing changes in regulatory structures, a strategic reserve has also been created. As part of it, the United States will not only not sell its cryptocurrencies (seized as a result of federal actions), but will accumulate certain cryptocurrencies, not just Bitcoin. Speculation is also growing about the potential scale of demand for cryptocurrencies from a new US wealth fund, modeled on the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund.
